Superbowl – Risky vs Safe Strategy
The NFL season comes to an end with the two best teams facing off against each other in the highest stakes game they will ever play in. There are money incentives, branding opportunities, glory, and fame. Not to mention that the Superbowl is the most-watched broadcast each year.
It is clear this game is a lot different than anything else the players have participated in. It’s a must-win game, but only one team can win. These once-in-a-lifetime games change the way you play, or does it?
That’s the question we are trying to answer. Do bigger occasions cause for riskier or safer plays?
Is there a difference in play calling in the 3rd game of the season versus the Superbowl?
There is no doubt there is more at risk in the Superbowl than any random regular-season game. We will look into the theory behind if coaches should make safer or riskier plays in these high-stakes games.
Scenario
It’s the middle of the second quarter in a tie game. You’re at midfield and it is 4th down and 3 to go. Do you go for the fourth down or punt it to your opponent.
Safer Option
The safer option is to punt the ball to your opponent. In hopes to pin them back to their goal line. It is safe because you are more than likely to successfully get the punt off and pin your opponent within the 20-yard line, which really helps your defense. Small risk, small reward.
Riskier Option
The riskier option is to go for it on 4th down. You hope to make the 4th down, keep moving the ball down the field, and give your team the momentum it needs to win the game. It is risky because if you fail to make the 4th down then your opponent gets the ball with short field position and now the momentum is in their favor. High risk, high reward.
Every game, in every sport, coaches and players have to make decisions similar to this scenario. They are always trying to find the best option for their team to win the game. Sometimes their decisions can be influenced by not only individual preferences but also what’s at stake in the decision.
What’s at Stake
Statistics and data can be and are used by coaches and players to help them in their decision-making. But sometimes they go against the grain and go with their gut feeling during a big game. This means they will go with riskier players during the Superbowl, for example. This might be the only time these players and coaches will ever make it to the big game, so mine as well leave it all out on the field. Go for the fourth down, pull out the trick plays, or pass the ball on the 1-yard line.
In Superbowl XLIX, the Seahawks lost to the Patriots when the Seahawks threw an interception in the final seconds of the game at the 1-yard line. This iconic play will forever go down as one of the worst play calls in Superbowl history. The safer option was to run the ball, you need only 1 yard. Not to mention the Seahawks had prime Marshawn Lynch aka “Beast Mode”. When he had the ball he ran over everyone in his path. So why did the Seahawks decide to pass the ball?
The Seahawks thought the Patriots would predict that they would run the ball, they had Beast Mode after all. They thought choosing the strategy of passing the ball would be the best. This is a great idea since you think the Patriots would think you are going to run the ball. The Seahawk strategy was wrong. It was a high-risk play and didn’t work in their favor.
If they completed the pass and scored a touchdown and won the Superbowl, that would go down as one of the best play calls ever in the Superbowl. Instead, it goes down as one of the worst. Quite an embarrassing loss for the Seahawks, such an important game and they choked.
Read more about the Game Theory of Super Bowl XLIX and the Seahawks 1 yard play call here!
The Social Aspect
Nobody likes losing a game, but what’s worse is losing in an embarrassing way. Like the Seahawks did. The social aspect of how we lose greatly influences our decisions. Other teams in that same position would more than likely hand the ball off to the running back to score the touchdown. This is because if you don’t score, it’s not a big deal, it’s not an embarrassing loss. You give the ball to a great running back but the defense was just better.
In such a high-stakes game many would choose to go the safe route to save themselves the embarrassment like the Seahawks had faced after their loss. The problem with this choice is that statistically, you are better off going to the risky route. This is because it is rare and chosen very often so it’s difficult to predict. The problem is that if it doesn’t work out in your favor, you end up worse than if the safer option didn’t end in your favor.
Low Stakes Games
Instead of these scenarios taking place in a high-stakes game like the Superbowl what if it takes place during a regular-season game? There really isn’t much downside to going with the risky plays as you have the rest of the season to make up for the negative effects of choosing the risky plays. An embarrassing loss in the regular season is quickly forgotten compared to the biggest game of the season.
But why go for risky plays during a regular-season game? If winning this game isn’t make or break, why take these big all-or-nothing risks. Just play it safe, play it smart. Save the risky trick plays for the big games so they are more unexpected.
These decisions the coaches and athletes must make are crucial to winning a game, turning around their season, or winning the Superbowl. The correct decision is what separates the good from the great. We’ll never know what decision is best as when a decision is made we only know the outcome of the choice they made not the one they didn’t.