Is Voting Worth It?

Every four years in the United States we have our Presidential election. Millions of people around the country vote to elect who they want as their next President for the next four years.

A lot of factors go into people’s decision-making on who to vote for, yet millions still chose to go to the polls and vote.

Recently in the United States, voter turnout has been hovering around 60% of the voter eligible population.

So why are there so many eligible voters not voting?

Voter Turnout Equation

We should first take a look at an equation for the probability of the voter turnout to vote:

V = pB – C

V: is the probability the voter will turnout

p: the probability that your vote will change the outcome of the election

B: the benefit or utility you can from one candidate winning over another

C: the cost of voting

In this equation, a voter will vote if the value for V is greater than zero. In other words, the benefit for voting would be greater than the cost of voting so the rational voter will vote.

The total benefits any voter receives from voting is the probability that their vote would change the outcome of the election (creates or breaks a tie) multiplied by the benefit the voter receives from one candidate winning over another.

When we look at an election like the Presidential election there are millions of voters, so the probability of your single vote will determine the outcome of the election is infinitesimally small.

We can then say since the probability is so small it is basically zero, and therefore the total benefit of voting is basically zero (or very close to it).

The cost of voting consists of everything from, the cost of gas to get to the polling station, to the time you must take off work, to even the time and energy it takes to research candidates to make a rational decision is a cost of voting.

Whether you live right next door to the polling station or you need to take off of work and drive multiple miles to get there for everyone the cost of voting is greater than zero, there is at least some cost for everyone.

Since we know the benefit of voting is zero and the cost of voting is greater than zero, V or the probability a voter will turn out to vote would be negative. This means that no rational voter will go out to the polls and vote, the cost is greater than the benefit.

So now that we understand why people don’t vote, why are there then millions of people still going out and voting?

Your Civic Duty

The original equation above that I presented isn’t the full equation, there is one piece left out and that is what I like to think of as the human side of decision making, it is what makes us not rational decision-makers.

V = pB – C + D

D: the psychological benefit we gain from voting

This psychological benefit we gain from voting is anything and everything that we see as beneficial from voting but has no real change in the outcome of the election.

This includes: voting is your civic duty, or the goodwill feeling, or even that it’s the right thing to. Other “benefits” that fit into this category are the social pressure of not voting (everyone walking around with the “I Voted” stickers or posting them on social media) or the sense of tribalism and voting for “your” party or social obligation to do the right thing.

So as long as the psychological benefits of voting are greater than the costs of voting then you will vote. This is the case for millions of people, their civic duty or duty to uphold democracy persuades them that there are more benefits to voting than there are costs.

Game Theory Lens

Looking through a Game Theory lens there could be another reason that people vote. If every voter was a rational voter then they would use the first equation V = pB – C to make their decision on whether or not to vote.

This would mean that no one would show up to vote because all voters would be rational, and the cost of voting is greater than the benefits.

But a rational voter will know that no one is showing up to vote, meaning that the value of p or the probability that you vote will change the outcome of the election increases.

As p increases the total benefit from voting increases and eventually will be greater than the cost to vote, this leads to even a rational voter with no psychological benefit for voting will still show up to the polls to vote.

Smaller Elections

In smaller voting groups, whether that’s local government, a small book club, a homeowners association meeting the benefit for voting is increased tremendously compared to a larger election like the presidential election.

This is due to the smaller number of potential voters, there is an inverse relationship between the number of voters and the rational benefit of voting, the fewer people that can vote the more weight your vote holds.

Conclusion

In the end, it is a personal decision on whether you think it is in your best interest to vote, a rational voter in almost every election will say that the cost is greater than the benefit, but as we’ve seen there is a lot more to look at when deciding to vote.

Just be careful when someone is trying to convince you to vote because “your vote matters”, in almost every election your vote didn’t matter.