Voter Memory and Economic Climate
Voting is a crucial component of any kind of organization that requires the input of multiple people to make a decision. It is essential to get an accurate opinion of the people the decision will affect. Although sometimes our votes don’t accurately represent what we truly want.
Short Term Memory
Voters only have short-term memory. Not a medical condition, but instead only look at very recent events when making their voting decisions.
When people vote let’s say for the president, you think voters will decide who to vote for based on political views. But really they vote based on their current living conditions. If voters’ lives are good, (have a job, little inflation, gas prices are low, a bull market) then they are more likely to vote for the current political party in charge. Whether that is the incumbent president or a new president of the same party.
Likewise, if voters’ lives are bad, (unemployed, high inflation, gas prices are high, bear market) then they are more likely to vote for the opposite political party than what is in charge.
This isn’t set in stone, that who you vote for is determined by the state of the market, but looking at individuals’ current situation can indicate how they could vote.
Passing Laws
Since politicians know that voters have short-term memory when it comes to voting, they use this to their advantage. They will implement policies that will have positive short-term outcomes for the people while disregarding the possible long-term consequences.
This will increase the chances of the politicians’ party getting re-elected since the people will look at them favorably if they implement a policy that improves their life even if it’s only for the short term.
You can read more about how politicians use laws to help them get re-elected here: Political Business Cycle – Incumbent Advantage
Today’s Voters
In just a few months the midterms will be arriving and the people of the United States will be voting for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. This is a big year for voting since it can determine which political party will control the House and Senate.
Right now the Democratic party looks to be in danger. Many people are unemployed or are unhappy with their current pay or job, inflation is at 8.5% (which is crazy to this about), gas prices are the highest they have been in a while, and we’re heading into a bad bear market. Things are not looking good.
Since the Democrats run the executive branch they are the ones blamed for the high inflation, unemployment, and bear market. To what degree are they actually responsible for it?
That has been up for debate forever and no one can really say how much control the president has over the market and inflation and unemployment. We have laws and policies that we can put in place to help with these things but there is also a delay from when the laws are implemented to when they actually have an effect.
Regardless of the degree of responsibility, the ones in charge are always in the hot seat when things go south. So how do the democrats combat this for the upcoming election? Canceling Student Debt.
Canceling Student Debt
About 45 million Americans have student debt. If the president cancels student debt in the next few months right before the midterm elections that is 45 million voters who are now in a better situation. Thus more likely to vote for the current party that is in charge, the Democrats.
The bad thing is that canceling student debt has some devastating consequences, but they show up in the long term so no voter will care about that. Check out: Why Canceling Student Loans Has Devastating Effects
So, before you go out and vote in November for the midterm elections think about not just the short-term effects but the long-term effects of your voting decision.